Even if we want, we can’t walk away from Baku

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is completing the first stage of very important visits today. He will then move on to Russia. Meetings with Azerbaijani leader Aliyev and Russia’s Prime Minister Putin are of vital importance for Turkey and the balance in the Caucasus.

These contacts will influence the following developments:

• They will either put the issue between Turkey and Armenia on the right track or push it into a situation where there won’t be any way out. As relations with Armenia decay, relations with Washington will get worse and pressure on Turkey exercised from the international community will increase.
• The solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue between Azerbaijan and Armenia will either get easier or even more chaotic. If it becomes unsolvable Turkey and Azerbaijan will be uncomfortable even if Russia benefits from it.
• Turkey will become an energy corridor and an extremely valuable bridge between the Caucasus and Europe. This project will either gain speed or raise difficulties during Erdoğan’s visit.

A lot of bargaining is going on within the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Armenia-Russia square. If this game of chess is played carefully with the right moves, then the way will be paved for Turkey. Erdoğan is in a difficult situation because acrobatic skills are needed to establish a balance between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia. The Baku visit has been scheduled right on time. The Azerbaijanis are just like us. They are a very sensitive society that acts based on emotions. They might easily say, “You sold us,” and come to the conclusion that they have been cheated.

Ankara’s concern is to get relations with Armenia back to normal and realize the solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue simultaneously without upsetting the Azerbaijanis. The Armenians want the border to open immediately, whereas the Azerbaijanis want Turkey not to take a step before the Nagorno-Karabakh issue has been resolved. And besides it is not only Ankara that holds the key. Moscow, Washington, Yerevan and Baku put forth their own scenarios.

Whatever might be, the most important country to be guarded and watched over is Azerbaijan. Even if the Azerbaijani exaggerate and do not watch over Turkey’s benefits in the long run, we feel different about them. Erdoğan’s contacts with Baku seem positive when viewed from the outside. And it couldn’t be any different. But there is some good to be on the safe side. Those who embrace each other today might fight tomorrow. Turkey walks a “long narrow road” in the Caucasus. The first steps are affirmative but we can’t tell yet what is waiting for us at the end of the road.

Source: Mehmet Ali Birand- Hurriyet
URL: www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/opinion/11643875.asp?yazarid=298&gid=260

Posted by admin May 2009

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